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Hypergeometric Distribution: Definition, Formula, and Examples

Hypergeometric Distribution

Definition:The hypergeometric distribution describes the probability of obtaining exactly kk successes in nn draws without replacement from a finite population of size NN that contains exactly KK successes.

Formula:P(X=k)=(Kk)(NKnk)(Nn)P(X = k) = \frac{\binom{K}{k}\binom{N-K}{n-k}}{\binom{N}{n}}

Where:

  • NN is the population size
  • KK is the number of success states in the population
  • nn is the number of draws
  • kk is the number of successes in the sample
  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} represents the binomial coefficient
Example: Imagine a box containing 20 marbles, of which 8 are blue and 12 are red. If you draw 5 marbles without replacement, what is the probability of getting exactly 3 blue marbles?

In this case:

  • N=20N = 20 (total marbles)
  • K=8K = 8 (blue marbles - success states)
  • n=5n = 5 (draws)
  • k=3k = 3 (desired blue marbles)

Plugging these values into the formula:

P(X=3)=(83)(122)(205)=5666155040.238P(X = 3) = \frac{\binom{8}{3}\binom{12}{2}}{\binom{20}{5}} = \frac{56 \cdot 66}{15504} \approx 0.238

Therefore, the probability of drawing exactly 3 blue marbles is about 23.8%.

Properties

  • Mean: E(X)=nKNE(X) = n\frac{K}{N}
  • Variance: Var(X)=nKNNKNNnN1\text{Var}(X) = n\frac{K}{N}\frac{N-K}{N}\frac{N-n}{N-1}
  • Support: max(0,n(NK))kmin(n,K)\text{max}(0, n-(N-K)) \leq k \leq \text{min}(n,K)

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